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Use a long view of ownership without assuming a guaranteed return

Day 14 of Eric’s 2023 video series argues for looking beyond short term market worries. A longer perspective can be useful, provided historical price changes are not mistaken for a promise about your home.

By Eric Hamilton · Published October 7, 2026

Originally uploaded August 21, 2023 · 0:57 · Watch on YouTube

Written companion added October 7, 2026. Adapted from Eric’s video captions with source checks; not a word for word transcript. The recording retains its original date.

Put the historical figures in context

The clip cites national price appreciation over five and thirty year periods, but does not identify the index or exact dates used. Those figures are not presented here as verified research. National averages also cannot tell you what happened to a specific property after maintenance, improvements and selling costs.

Distinguish price growth from your return

A home’s change in market value is only one part of the owner’s financial result. The amount borrowed, transaction costs and ongoing expenses matter too. The video’s percentage language also needs care: a 290% increase would mean a final value of 390% of the starting value, not merely a tripling. That arithmetic example does not establish any actual market appreciation.

Choose a plan that can withstand uncertainty

Ask how long you expect to stay and how a sale sooner than planned would affect you. Compare the housing decision with your savings needs and other priorities. Ownership can offer stability and potential equity growth, but prices can decline and some owners do regret a purchase. The durable lesson is to evaluate a long term commitment thoughtfully rather than react only to today’s headlines.

Does historical national appreciation predict my home’s value?

No. A local property can perform differently, and future appreciation is uncertain.

Is the video’s tripling description mathematically exact?

No. A 290% increase means 3.9 times the original value. The underlying historical statistic is not independently verified here.

Sources and scope

Adapted from captions of the video published 2023-08-21. Statements about market conditions and personal milestones describe that recording, not current results.

  1. CFPB: Preparing to shop for your mortgage Accessed October 6, 2026

General education, not a loan quote, approval or an individual recommendation. Ask the appropriate professional about your situation.

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Your next questions

How much home appreciation should I assume in a wealth calculator?

Use several scenarios rather than one promised growth rate. Try flat prices, a decline and a modest increase, and include selling costs when estimating spendable proceeds. A calculator illustrates assumptions; it does not predict your home’s future value. Your plan should not require appreciation just to make the payments work.

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Can a Chicago three flat make your own housing payment smaller?

Living in one unit and renting the others can offset a mortgage payment. The useful question is how much cash you would need after vacancy, repairs and the full cost of ownership.

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A low mortgage rate and a move: follow the sale proceeds

A low rate is valuable, but the decision to move also involves equity, other debts and the cost of the next home. Start by showing exactly where the sale money goes.

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Check the $250 payment reduction before calling it savings

The video's move-up example can illustrate monthly payment relief. It cannot establish total savings until you include property expenses, transaction costs and the balances that remain over time.

Read the answer

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