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Why mortgage rates can rise after a Fed meeting

Eric describes a small mortgage-rate increase after a September 2025 Fed meeting despite earlier declines. The apparent contradiction makes more sense when you separate a policy announcement from market expectations.

By Eric Hamilton · Published October 6, 2026

Originally uploaded September 19, 2025 · 1:54 · Watch on YouTube

Written companion added October 6, 2026. Adapted from Eric’s video captions with source checks; not a word for word transcript. The recording retains its original date.

Markets can react before the announcement

Mortgage pricing reflects longer-term markets and expectations about economic conditions. Anticipated policy changes may already influence rates before a meeting occurs. New information can then change those expectations, so a Fed decision does not translate mechanically into an equal mortgage-rate move.

Review the actual opportunity instead of guessing the low

For a purchase, update the full payment using a current quote and the same home-price assumptions. For a refinance, compare costs and your remaining term. Insurance shopping and, where eligible, mortgage insurance cancellation may also deserve separate attention rather than being folded into a claim that refinancing alone created every saving.

Does a temporary increase mean rates will resume falling soon?

No. Day-to-day movement can occur in either direction. Use a plan that does not depend on knowing the next low.

Sources and scope

Published September 19, 2025. The reported rate movements and added buying power describe the original September 2025 discussion; they are not current quotations.

  1. St. Louis Fed: What determines mortgage rates? Accessed October 6, 2026
  2. CFPB: Should I refinance? Accessed October 6, 2026

General education, not a loan quote, approval or an individual recommendation. Ask the appropriate professional about your situation.

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