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Why slower home sales do not always mean lower prices

This July 2025 video separates two housing statistics that are easy to confuse: how many homes sell and what those homes sell for. Limited supply can keep pressure on prices even when borrowing costs discourage transactions.

By Eric Hamilton · Published October 6, 2026

Originally uploaded July 29, 2025 · 1:21 · Watch on YouTube

Written companion added October 6, 2026. Adapted from Eric’s video captions with source checks; not a word for word transcript. The recording retains its original date.

Read the historical numbers together

NAR reported that June 2025 existing home sales fell from the prior month while the median sale price reached $435,300, up two percent from a year earlier. That median describes the homes sold, not the appreciation of every property.

Understand what a shortage estimate means

Freddie Mac estimated a national shortfall of 3.7 million housing units using data through the third quarter of 2024. Estimates depend on assumptions about household formation and available homes. A national shortage does not tell you whether your particular neighborhood has abundant or scarce choices.

Treat lower rates as a scenario

The video argues that lower rates could bring buyers back. That is a possible demand response, not a guaranteed price increase. Employment, affordability, listings, and local conditions also affect outcomes. Use local comparable sales when evaluating a purchase.

Can prices rise while fewer homes sell?

Yes. Transaction volume and sale prices measure different things, and the available supply and mix of homes sold matter.

Sources and scope

These figures explain the historical discussion. They are not today's housing statistics or a forecast that home values cannot fall.

  1. NAR: June 2025 sales and prices Accessed October 6, 2026
  2. Freddie Mac: Housing supply estimate through third quarter 2024 Accessed October 6, 2026

General education, not a loan quote, approval or an individual recommendation. Ask the appropriate professional about your situation.

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Your next questions

How much home appreciation should I assume in a wealth calculator?

Use several scenarios rather than one promised growth rate. Try flat prices, a decline and a modest increase, and include selling costs when estimating spendable proceeds. A calculator illustrates assumptions; it does not predict your home’s future value. Your plan should not require appreciation just to make the payments work.

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Can a Chicago three flat make your own housing payment smaller?

Living in one unit and renting the others can offset a mortgage payment. The useful question is how much cash you would need after vacancy, repairs and the full cost of ownership.

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A low mortgage rate and a move: follow the sale proceeds

A low rate is valuable, but the decision to move also involves equity, other debts and the cost of the next home. Start by showing exactly where the sale money goes.

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Check the $250 payment reduction before calling it savings

The video's move-up example can illustrate monthly payment relief. It cannot establish total savings until you include property expenses, transaction costs and the balances that remain over time.

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