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Why mortgage rates can move before a Fed announcement

This August 2025 commentary focuses on market expectations ahead of a September Federal Reserve meeting.

By Eric Hamilton · Published October 6, 2026

Originally uploaded August 23, 2025 · 2:56 · Watch on YouTube

Written companion added October 6, 2026. Adapted from Eric’s video captions with source checks; not a word for word transcript. The recording retains its original date.

Markets react to what they expect

The speaker explains that investors can adjust prices before a widely anticipated announcement. By the meeting date, some expectations may already be reflected in mortgage pricing. What happens next can depend on new information and whether the announcement differs from what investors expected.

Expectations are not a promise

A market probability does not guarantee a policy decision, and the Fed is not required to make a cut simply because investors expect one. Economic data and policy goals matter. Mortgage rates also do not have to fall when the Fed lowers its short-term target range.

Use available terms for the actual decision

The recording argues for acting before the meeting. That is a dated recommendation, not a reliable rule for every cycle. Compare a current offer, fees and lock terms with your budget and timeline. For refinancing, evaluate costs and how long you expect to keep the new loan.

Does the recording establish a current 90% probability or rate floor?

No. Its probability, inventory and rate comments belong to the original period and are not current forecasts.

Sources and scope

Published August 23, 2025. References to September concern the upcoming meeting as discussed in August 2025.

  1. Original video: The REAL Reason Mortgage Rates May Drop SOONER Than Expected Accessed October 6, 2026
  2. St. Louis Fed: What determines mortgage rates Accessed October 6, 2026
  3. CFPB: Mortgage rate locks Accessed October 6, 2026
  4. CFPB: Should I refinance? Accessed October 6, 2026
  5. Federal Reserve: How monetary policy is decided Accessed October 6, 2026

General education, not a loan quote, approval or an individual recommendation. Ask the appropriate professional about your situation.

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